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May 12, 2011

How 1 number can double (or cut in half) the value of your business

About a year before I sold my last business, I started working with a friend — let’s call him Rick — to help me prepare my company for sale. Rick had sold his own business and had gone on to lead M&A for a public company.  He had seen the guts of a lot of deals.

Our first few conversations were frustrating because I wanted to focus on how to maximize the multiple someone would pay for my business and Rick always responded in the same way:

“Multiple of what?”

“Multiple of earnings of course” would be my response, annoyed because I knew he was acting dumb.

Over time, I came to appreciate what Rick was talking about. It took me about a year — call me a slow learner — but I finally got it. So in this post, I’ll try to pass on Rick’s wisdom to you.

A multiple of course is M&A parlance for the multiple of your Earnings Before Interest Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) that you’ll fetch for your business when you go to sell it. Smaller businesses use something called Sellers Discretionary Income (SDI). Like fishing stories, cashed-out entrepreneurs often brag about the multiple they got for their business leading owners to a distorted view of what their business is worth.

Like a golf handicap or a marathon time, it’s tempting to fixate on getting a certain multiple for your business. It’s natural to want an objective measure for the value of your business and your multiple looks clean and simple to calculate.

But just like any other number on a spreadsheet, multiples can be manipulated.

Let’s say you’re having lunch with a potential acquirer and you ask her how much she thinks your business is worth. To answer your question accurately, she would likely do a discounted cash flow analysis.  Instead of making your eyes roll with complex financial equations, she responds by saying  “four times”. That sounds like a straightforward offer but, as the example below illustrates, there is a lot of room for interpretation:

Time

Let’s say you expect your business is going to generate $500,000 of EBITDA for the year ending December 31, 2011. Therefore, you might assume her offer of “four times” would equate to $2,000,000.

However, most buyers would argue that they’re going to peg their offer on your most recent completed financials.  If you only did $300,000 in EBITDA last year, then her “four times” offer now amounts to $1,200,000 – almost half of what you thought.

What’s more, some buyers will take a blended approach and average the last three year’s EBITDA. Assuming you just broke even in 2009, and you can get them to include your current year forecast, your average would be $266,000 and their “four times” offer is half of what you were expecting.

“Normalized expenses” – the market rate effect

Not only can an offer of four times vary on when you calculate EBITDA,  the price you get for your business will also go up or down depending on how you keep your books.  A buyer will want to “normalize” your earnings which means they will want to figure out how your business would perform if you stopped using it as a tax shelter.

For example, you might pay yourself a below market salary to minimize your personal tax bill. An acquirer will argue that, if they buy your business, they will have to install a manager with a market rate salary and will therefore recast your Profit and Loss statement with a fatter salary for the manager and corresponding lower EBITDA.  Therefore, if you’re paying yourself $100,000 a year but it would cost $200,000 a year to replace you, then your “normalized” EBITDA is going to be $400,000, not the $500,000 you told the buyer. Their “four times” offers will go down from $2,000,000 to $1,600,000 (4 x $400,000).

“Normalized expenses” – the piggybank effect

Normalization can work the other way too. Let’s say you’ve been running your business like a personal piggy bank (don’t worry, I won’t tell). Your spouse is on the payroll and the kitchen renovation you did at the house last year found its way on to your list of business expenses as an “office renovation”. You can argue to an acquirer that these costs should be deducted from your expenses when calculating EBITDA. So maybe, once you eliminate the piggy bank effect, you actually make more like $600,000 of EBITDA which means an offer of “four times” should garner more like $2,400,000.

Hard assets

When you’re talking about multiples you also have to take into consideration any hard assets. If your motel is generating $500,000 a year and you get offered “four times”, $2,000,000 may sound like a fair price until you take into consideration the land your motel is sitting on (that you own) is worth $1,000,000.

Working capital

Sometimes buyers will offer you an abnormally large multiple only to take it all away with an overly stingy working capital calculation. Working capital is the money you need to leave in your business at closing. If you’re able to pull out $200,000 in excess cash based on the working capital calculation a buyer proposes in their offer, you’re putting an extra $200,000 in your jeans even though the multiple the buyer is offering has not changed.

Fully loaded

Some buyers casually refer to a multiple they would pay including an earn out. For example, let’s say for a business generating $500,000 in EBITDA an acquirer offers $2,000,000 at closing with another $1,000,000 in consideration available if certain performance targets are met in the future. Most would agree that the acquirer is offering “four times” based on the cash changing hands at closing. But a sly buyer, looking to optically inflate their generosity, may choose to characterize their offer as “six times” basing the multiple on the full price paid if the earn out is achieved. That’s a big if.

Savvy buyers know that we entrepreneurs get fixated on getting a certain multiple for our business and the smart buyers use our obsession to their advantage.

Before you agree to discuss a potential acquisition based on a certain “multiple”,  peel back the layers of the offer to understand the details.

Just curious, how else have you seen multiples manipulated?

  • Katherine Roos says:

    Great article. Clearly lays out how complicated business valuation is for small, entrepreneurial businesses.

    • johnwarrillow says:

      Thanks Katherine, coming from someone like you with as much experience as you have with business owners, that means a lot!

  • Gerald says:

    Great article John………it may seem small and only words on paper but the effects can last a life time……great job…..

  • Ted Davidson says:

    John – a terrific analysis of a very complex topic. As business valuators ourselves we must grapple with these issues daily. It’s only human nature to want to condense everything into one number – to paint the situation black and white. The reality is that it takes one of our analysts 30-40 hours of focus and calculation to come up with that final number. Using rules of thumb and multiples certainly make things easy, but it doesn’t make it right. In doing so, you willingly ignoring all these nuances that you point out so well. Well done, John. – Ted (SPARDATA Value Advisors)

  • Holly Eddins says:

    We just acquired a business where the seller was touting the business as a owner operated business. As a result, they had taken out all customer service salaries from the bottom line. This is a minipulation to the numbers you didn’t mention.

  • Dan Jennings says:

    John:
    Another related area on multiples is the subject of Enterprise Value (EV). When someone tells you they pay 5x EBITDA for businesses, that means the result is EV, which is the collection of assets (tangible & intangible) that make up the business. But, if you’re selling shares (i.e. net of debt), the debt is deducted from EV to arrive at share value. I see this all the time where buyers attempt to confuse entrepreneurs by quoting an EBITDA multiple when they know they are acquiring shares (i.e. assuming debt) — same place in the end for the seller, but it is another manipulation of multiples.
    And as an aside, for Canadian small and mid-market entrepreneurs at least, they will likely need to sell shares to realize on the tax advantages ($750k capital gains exemption per shareholder, for one).

    Dan Jennings
    Deloitte Corporate Finance

    • johnwarrillow says:

      Thanks for adding your expertise here Dan. Yes, the $750K tax exemption is a biggie for Canadians and you’re right, it must be a share deal. Thanks again for layering in this additional insight.

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